Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
